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Can central banks go broke?

Read ArticleArticle Source: FT.com
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Those of you with time on your hands and a interest in spending some it it in a basement being beaten with a rubber hose, may want to take a look at my recent Centre for Economic Policy Research Policy Insight No. 24, "Can Central Banks Go Broke?"

In that paper, I ask whether it matters if a central bank suffers a large capital loss. Can the central bank become insolvent? How and by whom or by what institution should the central bank be recapitalised, if its capital were deemed insufficient? These are relevant questions not just in Zimbabwe and Tajikistan today, but wherever central banks have taken on or may be asked to take on large exposures to private credit risk. This includes the USA, the Euro Area, the UK, Iceland and many other advanced industrial countries.

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{"commentId":1810109,"authorDomain":"nearing"}

After watching this great little animation (that was linked to by some kind soul here on the Vine, but I forget just who)

and then reading this headline, I got spoked.

{"commentId":1810109,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"nearing"}
  • 4 votes
Reply#1 - Fri May 16, 2008 7:31 PM EDT
{"commentId":1810223,"authorDomain":"gumwars"}

I like the answer to the question. He didn't really know.

Some numbers to chew on, the Federal Reserve is worth approx. $900 billion. They've lent out nearly half of it. I wonder what's going to happen if/when they make a margin call.

I think we're going to find out before the year is through.

{"commentId":1810223,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"gumwars"}
  • 3 votes
#1.1 - Fri May 16, 2008 7:53 PM EDT
{"commentId":1810281,"authorDomain":"nearing"}

Isn't it ironic how it's all coming to a head at once?

You know that old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times"? I wonder how we got so lucky.

{"commentId":1810281,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"nearing"}
  • 4 votes
#1.2 - Fri May 16, 2008 8:06 PM EDT
{"commentId":1811972,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
Isn't it ironic how it's all coming to a head at once?

The chickens have completely come home to roost. How bad could this get? The fellow who wrote the article didn't answer the question, as has already been noted...with that giant watermelon-sized head, he at least looks like he might be a pretty smart guy, and he seems to open the door for some concern that things could turn quite ugly - road warrior scenario.

{"commentId":1811972,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 1 vote
#1.3 - Sat May 17, 2008 6:29 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1811964,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
I wonder what's going to happen if/when they make a margin call.

You know that is interesting about the Fed. Until very recently (correct me if I'm wrong here) the Fed only lent money to its member banks. Now what the member banks did with the money, I don't know.

This changed with the recent liquidity crisis, in particular the implosion of Bear Stearns, when the Fed opened their lending window to commercial banks (and prime brokers?). Not completely unprecedented, but from what little I know it was last done during the 1930's depression...(gee doesn't that sound encouraging?).

Also I remember seeing a recent article in the WSJ regarding commercial banks and prime brokerages being reluctant to actually borrow from the Fed, for fear of damaging their brand, by being unable to get money elsewhere, indicating that they were less than credit-worthy. Does open the door to ask whether 'good' money is chasing 'bad'.

The other thing about margin calls,I thought the Fed loans were all very short-term collateralized (Repo) loans, about 28 day terms at most? Again I know very little, so more likely than not, I'm wrong.

Makes me want to pull my IRA, 401K, and buy a cow instead, maybe a few chickens (actually we're vegetarians so maybe a plot of farm land would work better.

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  • 2 votes
Reply#2 - Sat May 17, 2008 6:10 AM EDT
{"commentId":1812323,"authorDomain":"gumwars"}

That's correct, the Fed's loans need to be repaid or rolled over in 28 days. My guess is the Fed will roll them for as long as they need to (i.e., they're never going to see that money again).

I've been looking into the fall of Bear Stearns, and some really disturbing information is coming out. I think JP Morgan took a short position on Bear and affected a strategic failure to deliver (naked short selling) that was coupled with some media jockeying. They passed rumors that Bear was insolvent and managed a run. The funny thing is, JP Morgan has done this before.

{"commentId":1812323,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"gumwars"}
  • 2 votes
#2.1 - Sat May 17, 2008 10:38 AM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1813791,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
I think JP Morgan took a short position on Bear and affected a strategic failure to deliver (naked short selling) that was coupled with some media jockeying. They passed rumors that Bear was insolvent and managed a run. The funny thing is, JP Morgan has done this before.

I had heard something along these lines too...not surprised to hear that this is a repeat, JP Morgan is sneaky, from what little I know about them.

The whole way that deal went off with the Fed negotiating the financing in 20 minutes on a Saturday night is just surreal.

{"commentId":1813791,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#3 - Sat May 17, 2008 8:43 PM EDT
{"commentId":1816648,"authorDomain":"gumwars"}

Did you know that Bernake and several other firms, including JP Morgan had a meeting the week before Stearns collapsed?

Guess which firm wasn't invited.

{"commentId":1816648,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"gumwars"}
  • 3 votes
#3.1 - Sun May 18, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":1816743,"authorDomain":"headinthegame"}

corruption

{"commentId":1816743,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"headinthegame"}
  • 2 votes
#3.2 - Mon May 19, 2008 12:47 AM EDT
{"commentId":1818886,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}

No, I don't think I heard it, though there seems to be a lot of this story that was less than 'transparent'

You know, I used to massage my ego about how I invest in stocks, (I gave up on mutual funds because I didn't like the idea of not really knowing what the hell I owned), and did my research on companies, etc. Now I just feel the pool of dark money is so overwhelming, an individual teeny tiny little investor like me really is just flipping a coin, no matter how much I tink I know.

Is half of the investment world flying under the radar?

{"commentId":1818886,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 2 votes
#3.3 - Mon May 19, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1816589,"authorDomain":"headinthegame"}

This is a great question Nearing. I think the answer is--they can lose all credibility and therefore be or go broke. hyperinflation here we come.

{"commentId":1816589,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"headinthegame"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#4 - Sun May 18, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
{"commentId":1818892,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}

Yes, thank you!

{"commentId":1818892,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 2 votes
#4.1 - Mon May 19, 2008 3:25 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1817668,"authorDomain":"ntq"}
Can central banks go broke?

I don't quite get what the author's trying to imply but, according to my half-done knowledge of "Central Banking System" and its peacetime/wartime tasks for regulating the size of a nation's money supply and the availability/cost of credit, I would say the term "bankrupcy" sounds quite irrelevant when addressing the central bank. Nevertheless, as a fiscal agent and financial adviser to the government, the fiscal and debt management policies of the central bank (amongst the many others) can lead to depression (depending on the wisdom that lies behind it). The way it did back in the 30s. It depends, to a great extent, on its authority, autonomy, and instruments of action. Today, with the growing government influence in its affairs, it seems that central banks, in a great majority of countries worldwide, are less concerned with public welfare and more involved with ensuring that the government's (the wealthy minority) point of view prevails. So, as always the case, it's the nation that's tightly connected to "bankrupcy" or "insolvency" rather than the central bank. Meantime, I feel dutybound to express my deepest regret to my vineoeconomist friends for sounding rather out-of-track. You see, it's the first time I've dared join a monetary issue of such complexity. I'm kind of strange with these systems and prefer to rely on my own unique "spend & earn" policy (based on the "live and let live" doctrine) rather than follow the conventional rules . It's far less complicated and, hence, much more feasible, vulnerable, and above all, stress-free :-)

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  • 2 votes
Reply#5 - Mon May 19, 2008 10:51 AM EDT
{"commentId":1818954,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
Today, with the growing government influence in its affairs, it seems that central banks, in a great majority of countries worldwide, are less concerned with public welfare and more involved with ensuring that the government's (the wealthy minority) point of view prevails. So, as always the case, it's the nation that's tightly connected to "bankrupcy" or "insolvency" rather than the central bank.

You know, I agree with you at one level, none of these folk are personally impacted by much of this, they are members of the richestani class. The thing though, is that 2/3 of economic activity in US is generated by those bankrupt consumers, so you'd think at soome level there is an interdependency between their ginormous investment portfolios and main street...maybe I'm being naive, I read an article in today's Boston Globe about the mega-rich snapping up 400K Rolls Royces, forclosed boats, etc., as investments in a down stock market.

I guess that in a truly global economy, the big state-subsidized global monopoly capitalist class can just off-shore to more rapidly developing economies, and no worry their pretty little heads about the starving Americans at home as they sink to a third-world standard of living.

{"commentId":1818954,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 2 votes
#5.1 - Mon May 19, 2008 3:39 PM EDT
{"commentId":1819009,"authorDomain":"ntq"}
they are members of the richestani class

LOL. May I ask where you got that subtle term? I mean "richestani". I love it!

The thing though, is that 2/3 of economic activity in US is generated by those bankrupt consumers

WoW!

I guess that in a truly global economy, the big state-subsidized global monopoly capitalist class can just off-shore to more rapidly developing economies, and no worry their pretty little heads about the starving Americans at home as they sink to a third-world standard of living

I'm almost certain that's how it's going to be but when are the hardworking Americans going to realize that?

{"commentId":1819009,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"ntq"}
  • 2 votes
#5.2 - Mon May 19, 2008 3:51 PM EDT
{"commentId":1819057,"authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}

Richestan is the name of a book by Robert Frank. Here's a link to the Amazon.com review for the book.

It is a very educational read, you may want to pick up a copy, used or new, semewhere if you have time to check it out!

{"commentId":1819057,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"Sem0lina"}
  • 1 vote
#5.3 - Mon May 19, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
Reply
{"commentId":1818710,"authorDomain":"nearing"}

ntq:

Today, with the growing government influence in its affairs, it seems that central banks, in a great majority of countries worldwide, are less concerned with public welfare and more involved with ensuring that the government's (the wealthy minority) point of view prevails.

I think that is the crux of it, right there.

prefer to rely on my own unique "spend & earn" policy (based on the "live and let live" doctrine) rather than follow the conventional rules . It's far less complicated and, hence, much more feasible, vulnerable, and above all, stress-free :-)

Oh that our government would run it's finances like you do, ntq. (but better, I shoudl think, to change the order and make it "earn & spend". ;>}

{"commentId":1818710,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"nearing"}
  • 3 votes
Reply#6 - Mon May 19, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
{"commentId":1819121,"authorDomain":"ntq"}

nearing

Oh that our government would run it's finances like you do, ntq

LOL. But only if it doesn't prove that one man's gravy, is another man's poison :-)

I shoudl think, to change the order and make it "earn & spend".

I warned you I was hopeless. :-) But there's also an aspect to the original order "spend & earn". I'm not sure about the economy in US but over here one of the greatest problems with the policy-makers (and that's been the case for the past 30 years) is that they encourage the masses to "earn and save" rather than "earn & spend". Much of the economy is locked because, apart from a limited range of vital consumer goods/services, no one's inclined towards spending on other things in order to keep the money (cash) circulating. You may say that's because of inflation and/or reduction of purchasing strength and so forth. Nevertheless, never in the past 5000 years, my people have been as well off as they have been in the last 15 years. Yet, that stingy habit still persists. So, what I was trying to imply was that "without spending, there will be no earning". That was the mindset of the wealthy class (richestanis, as Sem puts it) during the good old days. At least, in my country. And perhaps that's why the consumers had more chance to participate in investment activities and feel much more prosperous with the least saving.

sem The last paragraph of my previous remarks shouldn't be in quoted form. Sorry for the inconvinience.

{"commentId":1819121,"threadId":"265572","contentId":"1493807","authorDomain":"ntq"}
  • 2 votes
Reply#7 - Mon May 19, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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